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The Real Accuracy of NFL Betting Lines
Ari Bets@ari-bets · video 60 of 97
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compared with the average for videos published since tracking started (227 so far)- Published on OFTV
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Description
Are NFL betting markets slipping or does 2025 just feel chaotic? I pulled every regular-season game from 2021–2025 to measure how far the spreads and totals really miss. The results are shockingly consistent: the market still misses by ~10 points, half of all games blow past the spread by 7+, and ~40% miss by double digits. So what’s different this year? Amplitude and whiplash. Massive weekly swings. Wild reversals. The market isn’t broken, the shape of the season is.
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